Are You Ready for some Statistical Analysis?

*Spoilers ahead*

The Green Bay Packers play the Philadelphia Eagles tonight. Green Bay will not win. Philly is favored to win by 11. Pick them to beat the spread. I'm not saying this based on any player matchups, or Favre's stats this year, or anything that relates to either team. I am basing my prediction on Wisconsin's 52-17 beatdown on Indiana Saturday.

Over the last two years, Green Bay is 5 for 19 (.2632). However, they are 3 for 4 (.75) following a UW loss, and only 1 for 11 (.0909) following a UW win. That one win, by the way, was following Wisconsin's bowl win over Auburn last year, so it might not even count. If the Badger games were unrelated to the Packer games, they should have gone 1/4 and 3/11 after Wisconsin losses and wins. Statistically speaking, this amount of correlation points to a strong dependence.

Charting the margin of victory for each game, there was not a strong correlation, but it looks safe to infer that after UW's 35 point win, Green Bay will lose by around 20.

I could figure out the odds that there is no dependence, but this took enough of my time.


Blogger Dorshorst said...

Final score:
Eagles 31, Packers 9.
Margin of victory: 22.

If anyone is wondering if I ever get tired of being right all the time, I don't get tired of it, but I do miss being surprised by things.

2/10/06 22:05  
Blogger Dorshorst said...

Watching the Packers-Rams game today, I think it was actually better knowing that the Packers would lose. The drama was not in will they win or lose, but in how will they manage to lose. Especially on that last drive, when they got will within field goal range, and kept moving closer. I was thinking blocked field goal or some mishap there. Whoever's pulling the strings on this thing, nice touch on having Farve fumble on the 15 yard line.

8/10/06 17:52  

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